NDSU vs KSU spread

[NDSUBowler]

Line is out on 5dimes

http://vvcap.net/db/N-m_QxQvGLuqqsdokdyt.png

Too high? Too low? Discuss!

[KSTATER]

Another line has it 16.5

[NDSUBowler]

Another line has it 16.5
Which site?

I've always used 5Dimes for lines...always looking for more sites that show FCS related lines.

[Professor Chaos]

It was at NDSU+17.5 a week or two ago on 5dimes so its going down. I still think +13.5 is too high. I'd expect it to be around +9-10 by the time it levels out

Sent from my RM-845_nam_vzw_100 using Tapatalk

[tjbison]

don't matter Kansas u jr will fall back to terrible no matter what

hell they were good last year and you still heard more about SEC teams

[onbison09]

I think 16.5 is about right. I saw some FBS lines for the first weekend that were as high as 30+ so in a weird way I think 13 is a big show of respect.

[Gully]

13 seems about right

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

I got in at -15.5 (max was $50) and again at -14 (max was $100). Pussies.

[Bookie Pimp]

I got in at -15.5 (max was $50) and again at -14 (max was $100). Pussies.

You'll be quite thankful at the end of the day, to be honest. Good luck with your wagers, though.

[thebootfitter]

I think 16.5 is about right. I saw some FBS lines for the first weekend that were as high as 30+ so in a weird way I think 13 is a big show of respect.

Some FBS/FCS match ups were much closer. I think the Southern Illinois / Illinois game showed only an 8 point spread last I checked.

[Thundering Herd]

But, but, but the illini werent BIG 12 CHAMPS last year. K state was and therefore are unbeatable this year! I think it should be NDSU +41.5... 52-10 wildcats I saw somewhere which sounds about right...

[Bisonator98]

I think 13 is about right. I doubt we lose by 2 TD's. GO BISON!

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

You'll be quite thankful at the end of the day, to be honest. Good luck with your wagers, though.

Should be the easiest $150 I ever made.

[Bookie Pimp]

Should be the easiest $150 I ever made.

If, by some miracle, K-State has a good team again and it's not... At least the beers are cheap in Manhattan.

Safe travels. Looking forward to seeing the good folks I've met in Frisco that past two years.

[Bison 4 Life]

If, by some miracle, K-State has a good team again and it's not... At least the beers are cheap in Manhattan.

Safe travels. Looking forward to seeing the good folks I've met in Frisco that past two years.

It might be professional courtesy but you seem much more polite here than on goemaw.

[Bookie Pimp]

It might be professional courtesy but you seem much more polite here than on goemaw.

Nice of you to notice. I love talking shit on bbs's... I won't lie. But, I don't wander out to others bbs's to do so.

I'll admit that while we at goEMAW (a rebel BBS), are pretty rough on visitors and generally troll the shit out of em, I've been a bit taken aback by how many folks here auto-assume that every visitor has come to "troll' your board. While I am NO fan of the group that posts at scout.com, that's generally what y'all have had to deal with, so I get it. Keep in mind, we have THREE highly trafficked bbs's... This place seems (from my experience) to be home to all your fans including the "shirt-tucks" and the "trolls". (minus lakes & JBB of course)

I live in Frisco, so I've been to the past two FCS champ games and have met & befriended a number of good folks from N. Dakota. Many times over the summer, I was both disgusted and disappointed in the vitirol in some of the posts directed towards a football program I was a part of and towards a school that I have a degree from... I understand a little "pre-game smack talk" and poking fun at stereotypes, but at times it got downright personal, which is NOT what I experienced with the fans/alums I've met in person. Not trying to make excuses, but some of my anger & disgust came out in some of my postings on our home board.

I bought tickets for, and am hosting, four Bison fans that took us in last January at FC Dallas Stadium and gave my step-son one of those big, fuzzy Bison hats with the horns. So, I've been excited about this game for 8 months. I hope that you will all realize that just because we see the game through our purple lenses and may have a slightly different view of the relative strengths of upper level BCS football when compared to FCS and the ku/minny/CSU's of the world, it doesn't mean that we don't respect your team, program and fans.

Many of just love the game and want to talk about it with like minded people leading up to the contest.

ps- generally speaking, all we got at from Bisonville at gE was lakes, MNLonghorn10 (posing as NDSU Lollypopkid) and Izzy Flexion (posing as Norma Stitz). Perhaps we wouldn't look so bad if you didn't send your shittiest posters? Hahahahaha

[Bison 4 Life]

Nice of you to notice. I love talking shit on bbs's... I won't lie. But, I don't wander out to others bbs's to do so.

I'll admit that while we at goEMAW (a rebel BBS), are pretty rough on visitors and generally troll the shit out of em, I've been a bit taken aback by how many folks here auto-assume that every visitor has come to "troll' your board. While I am NO fan of the group that posts at scout.com, that's generally what y'all have had to deal with, so I get it. Keep in mind, we have THREE highly trafficked bbs's... This place seems (from my experience) to be home to all your fans including the "shirt-tucks" and the "trolls". (minus lakes & JBB of course)

I live in Frisco, so I've been to the past two FCS champ games and have met & befriended a number of good folks from N. Dakota. Many times over the summer, I was both disgusted and disappointed in the vitirol in some of the posts directed towards a football program I was a part of and towards a school that I have a degree from... I understand a little "pre-game smack talk" and poking fun at stereotypes, but at times it got downright personal, which is NOT what I experienced with the fans/alums I've met in person. Not trying to make excuses, but some of my anger & disgust came out in some of my postings on our home board.

I bought tickets for, and am hosting, four Bison fans that took us in last January at FC Dallas Stadium and gave my step-son one of those big, fuzzy Bison hats with the horns. So, I've been excited about this game for 8 months. I hope that you will all realize that just because we see the game through our purple lenses and may have a slightly different view of the relative strengths of upper level BCS football when compared to FCS and the ku/minny/CSU's of the world, it doesn't mean that we don't respect your team, program and fans.

Many of just love the game and want to talk about it with like minded people leading up to the contest.

ps- generally speaking, all we got at from Bisonville at gE was lakes, MNLonghorn10 (posing as NDSU Lollypopkid) and Izzy Flexion (posing as Norma Stitz). Perhaps we wouldn't look so bad if you didn't send your shittiest posters? Hahahahaha


Football smack is football smack but the weird Canada/wilderness/poor shit is mostly what I speak of. I live in Kansas and it's pretty much a warmer North Dakota. People who live in Manhattan shit talking Fargo is pretty hilarious.

[Bookie Pimp]

Football smack is football smack but the weird Canada/wilderness/poor shit is mostly what I speak of. I live in Kansas and it's pretty much a warmer North Dakota. People who live in Manhattan shit talking Fargo is pretty hilarious.

I'm glad you found the humor in it... Some get it some don't. If Manhattan was the epicenter of big city chic, I wouldn't have made my home in the DFW area!

Like I said above, it's mostly random bullshit to see what we can get a rise out of people with or poking at stereotypes to break down walls. At the end of the day, we aren't that much different. I totally agree.

Meanwhile, you have your buddy tmcats here who doesn't even realize that he's a troll and he absolutely HATES all of us at goEMAW. So, take from that what you will.

Safe travels, enjoy the game and try not to let that shithole lowrents rub off on you too much... ku is to K-State as und is to NDSU, just FYI.

[MNLonghorn10]

Nice of you to notice. I love talking shit on bbs's... I won't lie. But, I don't wander out to others bbs's to do so.

I'll admit that while we at goEMAW (a rebel BBS), are pretty rough on visitors and generally troll the shit out of em, I've been a bit taken aback by how many folks here auto-assume that every visitor has come to "troll' your board. While I am NO fan of the group that posts at scout.com, that's generally what y'all have had to deal with, so I get it. Keep in mind, we have THREE highly trafficked bbs's... This place seems (from my experience) to be home to all your fans including the "shirt-tucks" and the "trolls". (minus lakes & JBB of course)

I live in Frisco, so I've been to the past two FCS champ games and have met & befriended a number of good folks from N. Dakota. Many times over the summer, I was both disgusted and disappointed in the vitirol in some of the posts directed towards a football program I was a part of and towards a school that I have a degree from... I understand a little "pre-game smack talk" and poking fun at stereotypes, but at times it got downright personal, which is NOT what I experienced with the fans/alums I've met in person. Not trying to make excuses, but some of my anger & disgust came out in some of my postings on our home board.

I bought tickets for, and am hosting, four Bison fans that took us in last January at FC Dallas Stadium and gave my step-son one of those big, fuzzy Bison hats with the horns. So, I've been excited about this game for 8 months. I hope that you will all realize that just because we see the game through our purple lenses and may have a slightly different view of the relative strengths of upper level BCS football when compared to FCS and the ku/minny/CSU's of the world, it doesn't mean that we don't respect your team, program and fans.

Many of just love the game and want to talk about it with like minded people leading up to the contest.

ps- generally speaking, all we got at from Bisonville at gE was lakes, MNLonghorn10 (posing as NDSU Lollypopkid) and Izzy Flexion (posing as Norma Stitz). Perhaps we wouldn't look so bad if you didn't send your shittiest posters? Hahahahaha

Oooh you like us there..your site would be pud if umass was your first game :-)

[Bison 4 Life]

I'm glad you found the humor in it... Some get it some don't. If Manhattan was the epicenter of big city chic, I wouldn't have made my home in the DFW area!

Like I said above, it's mostly random bullshit to see what we can get a rise out of people with or poking at stereotypes to break down walls. At the end of the day, we aren't that much different. I totally agree.

Meanwhile, you have your buddy tmcats here who doesn't even realize that he's a troll and he absolutely HATES all of us at goEMAW. So, take from that what you will.

Safe travels, enjoy the game and try not to let that shithole lowrents rub off on you too much... ku is to K-State as und is to NDSU, just FYI.

KU pays 58% of my household income so ROCK f***in CHALK.

I love it here. Doesn't even compare to Grand Forks a little.

[Bookie Pimp]

KU pays 58% of my household income so ROCK f***in CHALK.

I love it here. Doesn't even compare to Grand Forks a little.

Take their money if you must, but you'll be wise to keep that under your breath while in MHK. It's unfortunate that William Quantrill didn't succeed when he tried to burn that shithole to the ground in the 1800's.

My prayer for you is that you soon realize that their alums & fans are WAY more like the undies than they are like you good folks.

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

If, by some miracle, K-State has a good team again and it's not... At least the beers are cheap in Manhattan.

Safe travels. Looking forward to seeing the good folks I've met in Frisco that past two years.

I think it is highly unlikely that KSU covers a 14 point spread. Could happen, but highly unlikely IMO. We shall see.

[bisonaudit]

Take their money if you must, but you'll be wise to keep that under your breath while in MHK. It's unfortunate that William Quantrill didn't succeed when he tried to burn that shithole to the ground in the 1800's.

My prayer for you is that you soon realize that their alums & fans are WAY more like the undies than they are like you good folks.

/purple William Quantrill; now there's a man who was on the right side of history. /purple

[Bison 4 Life]

/purple William Quantrill; now there's a man who was on the right side of history. /purple

It's funny, we just had the "up yours Quantrill" 150th anniversary in our beautiful downtown.

[Tatanka]

/purple William Quantrill; now there's a man who was on the right side of history. /purple




neither side was on the right side of history in that border war...





Sent from somewhere using my Win8 phone or something.

[Bookie Pimp]

I think it is highly unlikely that KSU covers a 14 point spread. Could happen, but highly unlikely IMO. We shall see.

We can just agree to disagree on that point. I have my logic and reasoning for believing that the 'Cats cover the spot, and I'm sure you have yours.

One of my best friends, a UT grad, is a statistical wizard and has created a point spread prediction model that hit right at 70% last year. Even when factoring in graduation/injuries/etc., his model has this at 31-14. Additionally, the Massey model which is used by the BCS forecasts it at 34-14.

Game is played on the field though, and I know your kids are fired up and focused on competing to the best of their abilities just as ours are.

Good luck.


It's funny, we just had the "up yours Quantrill" 150th anniversary in our beautiful downtown.

Suffice it to say that K-Stater's and the ilk down the river have a differing view of Q's efforts.... hahaha

[bisonaudit]

One of my best friends, a UT grad, is a statistical wizard and has created a point spread prediction model that hit right at 70% last year.




I find this difficult to believe. If it were true I sure as hell wouldn't be going around advertising it.

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

Nice of you to notice. I love talking shit on bbs's... I won't lie. But, I don't wander out to others bbs's to do so.

I'll admit that while we at goEMAW (a rebel BBS), are pretty rough on visitors and generally troll the shit out of em, I've been a bit taken aback by how many folks here auto-assume that every visitor has come to "troll' your board. While I am NO fan of the group that posts at scout.com, that's generally what y'all have had to deal with, so I get it. Keep in mind, we have THREE highly trafficked bbs's... This place seems (from my experience) to be home to all your fans including the "shirt-tucks" and the "trolls". (minus lakes & JBB of course)

I live in Frisco, so I've been to the past two FCS champ games and have met & befriended a number of good folks from N. Dakota. Many times over the summer, I was both disgusted and disappointed in the vitirol in some of the posts directed towards a football program I was a part of and towards a school that I have a degree from... I understand a little "pre-game smack talk" and poking fun at stereotypes, but at times it got downright personal, which is NOT what I experienced with the fans/alums I've met in person. Not trying to make excuses, but some of my anger & disgust came out in some of my postings on our home board.

I bought tickets for, and am hosting, four Bison fans that took us in last January at FC Dallas Stadium and gave my step-son one of those big, fuzzy Bison hats with the horns. So, I've been excited about this game for 8 months. I hope that you will all realize that just because we see the game through our purple lenses and may have a slightly different view of the relative strengths of upper level BCS football when compared to FCS and the ku/minny/CSU's of the world, it doesn't mean that we don't respect your team, program and fans.

Many of just love the game and want to talk about it with like minded people leading up to the contest.

ps- generally speaking, all we got at from Bisonville at gE was lakes, MNLonghorn10 (posing as NDSU Lollypopkid) and Izzy Flexion (posing as Norma Stitz). Perhaps we wouldn't look so bad if you didn't send your shittiest posters? Hahahahaha

1. I agree with you, unless its Minny. Those eff's are so clueless, they deserve it.

2. I agree that Bisonville is very defensive at times. I think it comes from a combination of being from ND and the crappy FBS teams we have played in the past. If you are from ND, you generally get shit from everyone right off the bat. That gets old, so the auto defense mechanism naturally kicks in. Secondly, the fans from the crappy FBS teams we have played in the past have almost always belittled us. They assumed (incorrectly) that they would clobber us just because our team is from a lower division, even though we knew we had a better team. So you have that defensive "chip on the shoulder" as well. This is just my opinion, though.

3. I have been disappointed as well. I have always said from the beginning that KSU is a different animal than the FBS teams of the past and that their fans have no reason to, and probably even shouldn't, show us any respect. Mostly fallen on deaf ears, but I think you will find our fans are very much like KSU fans in person. Very good people to talk to and have a few beers with, who are very passionate and proud of their team.

I'm looking forward to very good game. Should be a good time.

[Bisonator98]

Nice of you to notice. I love talking shit on bbs's... I won't lie. But, I don't wander out to others bbs's to do so.

I'll admit that while we at goEMAW (a rebel BBS), are pretty rough on visitors and generally troll the shit out of em, I've been a bit taken aback by how many folks here auto-assume that every visitor has come to "troll' your board. While I am NO fan of the group that posts at scout.com, that's generally what y'all have had to deal with, so I get it. Keep in mind, we have THREE highly trafficked bbs's... This place seems (from my experience) to be home to all your fans including the "shirt-tucks" and the "trolls". (minus lakes & JBB of course)

I live in Frisco, so I've been to the past two FCS champ games and have met & befriended a number of good folks from N. Dakota. Many times over the summer, I was both disgusted and disappointed in the vitirol in some of the posts directed towards a football program I was a part of and towards a school that I have a degree from... I understand a little "pre-game smack talk" and poking fun at stereotypes, but at times it got downright personal, which is NOT what I experienced with the fans/alums I've met in person. Not trying to make excuses, but some of my anger & disgust came out in some of my postings on our home board.

I bought tickets for, and am hosting, four Bison fans that took us in last January at FC Dallas Stadium and gave my step-son one of those big, fuzzy Bison hats with the horns. So, I've been excited about this game for 8 months. I hope that you will all realize that just because we see the game through our purple lenses and may have a slightly different view of the relative strengths of upper level BCS football when compared to FCS and the ku/minny/CSU's of the world, it doesn't mean that we don't respect your team, program and fans.

Many of just love the game and want to talk about it with like minded people leading up to the contest.

ps- generally speaking, all we got at from Bisonville at gE was lakes, MNLonghorn10 (posing as NDSU Lollypopkid) and Izzy Flexion (posing as Norma Stitz). Perhaps we wouldn't look so bad if you didn't send your shittiest posters? Hahahahaha

Good post! I wish more people would act like themselves rather then feel the need to have some sort of internet alter ego!

[bisonaudit]

neither side was on the right side of history in that border war...





Sent from somewhere using my Win8 phone or something.

:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused: :confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:

[Bison 4 Life]

:confused::confused::confused::confused::confused: :confused::confused::confused::confused::confused:

I get what he was saying. It was a lot of terrorist style guerilla warfare. Innocents getting killed. Jayhawkers killed a lot of women and children just for shock value. Bleeding Kansas was a low point in our history.

[bisonaudit]

Suffice it to say that K-Stater's and the ilk down the river have a differing view of Q's efforts.... hahaha

I don't like UND very much but I wouldn't throw in with a pro-Slavery, Confederate guerrilla because of it. You guys need to get some perspective. :)

[Bookie Pimp]

I don't like UND very much but I wouldn't throw in with a pro-Slavery, Confederate guerrilla because of it. You guys need to get some perspective. :)


Tongue in cheek, bro... Tongue firmly in cheek.

But, with that said, Phuck ku.

[bisonaudit]

I get what he was saying. It was a lot of terrorist style guerilla warfare. Innocents getting killed. Jayhawkers killed a lot of women and children just for shock value. Bleeding Kansas was a low point in our history.

A description of WWII shamlessly lifted from here http://www.slate.com/content/slate/blogs/moneybox.2.html

One participant in that war had an active policy of targeting enemy civilian population centers for wholesale destruction as a battlefield tactic. Initially they did this with large-scale bombing raids designed to set as many houses ablaze as possible. Eventually they developed nuclear weapons in order to massacre enemy civilians in a more pilot-intensive way. The country in question was allied with a vicious dictator whose political strategies included mass rape (http://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/may/01/news.features11), large-scale civilian deportations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Lentil_%28Caucasus%29), and the occasional deliberate engineering of famine conditions (http://www.holodomorct.org/history.html). And those were the good guys! We're all very happy they won!



Were we on the wrong side of history that time as well?

[Bison 4 Life]

A description of WWII shamlessly lifted from here http://www.slate.com/content/slate/blogs/moneybox.2.html

One participant in that war had an active policy of targeting enemy civilian population centers for wholesale destruction as a battlefield tactic. Initially they did this with large-scale bombing raids designed to set as many houses ablaze as possible. Eventually they developed nuclear weapons in order to massacre enemy civilians in a more pilot-intensive way. The country in question was allied with a vicious dictator whose political strategies included mass rape (http://www.theguardian.com/books/2002/may/01/news.features11), large-scale civilian deportations (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Lentil_%28Caucasus%29), and the occasional deliberate engineering of famine conditions (http://www.holodomorct.org/history.html). And those were the good guys! We're all very happy they won!


Were we on the wrong side of history that time as well?



I'm a pacifist. I'm sure if given the option of deportation and being barbecued, they might have chosen the former.

[bisonaudit]

I'm a pacifist. I'm sure if given the option of deportation and being barbecued, they might have chosen the former.

All wars are crimes.

I guess my point is that the fact that a lot of shitty things are done by both sides in a conflict doesn't necessarily make both sides morally equivalent.

[Bison 4 Life]

All wars are crimes.

I guess my point is that the fact that a lot of shitty things are done by both sides in a conflict doesn't necessarily make both sides morally equivalent.

OK this got weird in a hurry. Agree to disagree.

[bisonaudit]

OK this got weird in a hurry. Agree to disagree.

What's weird about thinking that going to war in opposition to slavery is a superior moral position to going to war to perpetuate it?

[Bookie Pimp]

OK this got weird in a hurry. Agree to disagree.

Although initially joking, I almost feel bad for derailing this thread into a merits of war discussion.

:duel:

[bisonaudit]

Although initially joking, I almost feel bad for derailing this thread into a merits of war discussion.

:duel:

OK, then. Tell me more about your UT friend's system.

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

OK, then. Tell me more about your UT friend's system.

I think it's a lot like JBB's. :biggrin:

[SDbison]

Good post! I wish more people would act like themselves rather then feel the need to have some sort of internet alter ego! Most people consider me to be kind of an asshole in person, and kind of an asshole on the Internet, so no alter ego here.

[Tatanka]

What's weird about thinking that going to war in opposition to slavery is a superior moral position to going to war to perpetuate it?




I'm not so sure the Civil War/The Time of Northern Aggression;) was actually just about slavery. And I'm damn sure Quantrill's raid on Lawrence wasn't about slavery either. Read up on the history...





Sent from somewhere using my Win8 phone or something.

[Bison 4 Life]

What's weird about thinking that going to war in opposition to slavery is a superior moral position to going to war to perpetuate it?


Although initially joking, I almost feel bad for derailing this thread into a merits of war discussion.

:duel:

That's what got weird about it.

This is a football thread, not a extensive examination of jus in bello.


I'm not so sure the Civil War/The Time of Northern Aggression;) was actually just about slavery. And I'm damn sure Quantrill's raid on Lawrence wasn't about slavery either. Read up on the history...





Sent from somewhere using my Win8 phone or something.

The staging area of the raid was Mount Oread - where the KU campus now stands.

[Bookie Pimp]

OK, then. Tell me more about your UT friend's system.

Sent in PM...

[bisonaudit]

I'm not so sure the Civil War/The Time of Northern Aggression;) was actually just about slavery. And I'm damn sure Quantrill's raid on Lawrence wasn't about slavery either. Read up on the history...





Sent from somewhere using my Win8 phone or something.

If you're not sure that the Civil War was about slavery, then what was it about?

If Quantrill wasn't a Confederate then what was he? A wanton opportunist and sociopath taking full advantage of the chaos of war? Seems like a lot of abolitionist Jayhawks ended up dead around him.

[SDbison]

Moderators please move most this thread to the History buffs debate thread.

[bisonaudit]

A 13 point line would imply approximately a 17% chance of an NDSU victory.

[NDSUBowler]

A 13 point line would imply approximately a 17% chance of an NDSU victory.
Yup...I expect ML to be ~+500 juice free.

Hoping to get the chance to bet it (need book to put up official ML)

[Bison 4 Life]

A 13 point line would imply approximately a 17% chance of an NDSU victory.

http://static.cdn-seekingalpha.com/uploads/2012/10/17/saupload_lloyd-300x300.jpg

[Bookie Pimp]

A 13 point line would imply approximately a 17% chance of an NDSU victory.

That is precisely why I'm firmly of the belief that the line is way too low. Ken Massey's math model (one of 6 computer models used in BCS poll) has it as a 34-14 game with NDSU holding a 10% chance of victory.

http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=199231&t0=North+Dakota+State&h=-1&s1=199231&t1=Kansas+State

[bisonaudit]

That is precisely why I'm firmly of the belief that the line is way too low. Ken Massey's math model (one of 6 computer models used in BCS poll) has it as a 34-14 game with NDSU holding a 10% chance of victory.

http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=199231&t0=North+Dakota+State&h=-1&s1=199231&t1=Kansas+State

I wouldn't put much stock in the results of any model that is BCS compliant.

[Tatanka]

Moderators please move most this thread to the History buffs debate thread.I agree. Sorry for cluttering this thread up. BisonAudit, let's continue the conversation over a good tailgate.

[bisonaudit]

I agree. Sorry for cluttering this thread up. BisonAudit, let's continue the conversation over a good tailgate.

Agreed. .

[Bookie Pimp]

That is precisely why I'm firmly of the belief that the line is way too low. Ken Massey's math model (one of 6 computer models used in BCS poll) has it as a 34-14 game with NDSU holding a 10% chance of victory.

http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=199231&t0=North+Dakota+State&h=-1&s1=199231&t1=Kansas+State

I wouldn't put much stock in the results of any model that is BCS compliant.

Seems like the standard line here... (unless quoting Sagarin, that is.)

;-)

[bisonaudit]

Seems like the standard line here... (unless quoting Sagarin, that is.)

;-)

Sagarin isn't BCS compliant. At least the one that people should be looking at. It a travesty that he agreed to participate in that nonsense.

[gumby013]

That is precisely why I'm firmly of the belief that the line is way too low. Ken Massey's math model (one of 6 computer models used in BCS poll) has it as a 34-14 game with NDSU holding a 10% chance of victory.

http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=199231&t0=North+Dakota+State&h=-1&s1=199231&t1=Kansas+State

That would also be close to what my system is spitting out based on last year's games...a 12.95% chance.

[Bisonator98]

Most people consider me to be kind of an asshole in person, and kind of an asshole on the Internet, so no alter ego here.

:biggrin:

10 char

[NDSUBowler]

That is precisely why I'm firmly of the belief that the line is way too low. Ken Massey's math model (one of 6 computer models used in BCS poll) has it as a 34-14 game with NDSU holding a 10% chance of victory.

http://www.masseyratings.com/game.php?s0=199231&t0=North+Dakota+State&h=-1&s1=199231&t1=Kansas+State
And, exactly how is Massey's model coming up with those numbers?

I just can't see any way a computer model can predict scores for this year using fresh information....only information from last year, which would only be good for a general startpoint. Add in roster changes (or lack of in NDSU's case) and such and the predictions become much harder to make.

If you want to use a last year's model. Sagarin would have had 2012 KSU vs 2012 NDSU as a 14ish pt favorite for KSU. Then adjust for this year accordingly...I can't see it spitting out a MUCH bigger favorite in KSU's direction.

[NDSUBowler]

Seems like the standard line here... (unless quoting Sagarin, that is.)

;-)


Sagarin isn't BCS compliant. At least the one that people should be looking at. It a travesty that he agreed to participate in that nonsense.
I'm too busy quoting Sagarin to refresh and see you guys talking about him.

Oops.

[344Johnson]

What's weird about thinking that going to war in opposition to slavery is a superior moral position to going to war to perpetuate it?

States' Rights.

[Bookie Pimp]

That would also be close to what my system is spitting out based on last year's games...a 12.95% chance.


And, exactly how is Massey's model coming up with those numbers?

I just can't see any way a computer model can predict scores for this year using fresh information....only information from last year, which would only be good for a general startpoint. Add in roster changes (or lack of in NDSU's case) and such and the predictions become much harder to make.

If you want to use a last year's model. Sagarin would have had 2012 KSU vs 2012 NDSU as a 14ish pt favorite for KSU. Then adjust for this year accordingly...I can't see it spitting out a MUCH bigger favorite in KSU's direction.

I don't know what kind of score that gumby's system is spitting out. However, a buddy of mine that is a mathematical wizard from UT created a model that is the most accurate I've ever seen, even above the ones discussed. He actually has built in a methodology to factor in graduation,etc. and injuries during mid-season.

With his model, using your LY contributors/starters vs our returning contributors/starters he gets a point spread of 17 with a score of 31-14.

[bisonaudit]

And, exactly how is Massey's model coming up with those numbers?

I just can't see any way a computer model can predict scores for this year using fresh information....only information from last year, which would only be good for a general startpoint. Add in roster changes (or lack of in NDSU's case) and such and the predictions become much harder to make.

If you want to use a last year's model. Sagarin would have had 2012 KSU vs 2012 NDSU as a 14ish pt favorite for KSU. Then adjust for this year accordingly...I can't see it spitting out a MUCH bigger favorite in KSU's direction.

I recently finished an interesting book "Trading Bases" by Joe Peta that used projections of current year performance based on individual player history, aging curves, roster composition changes, etc. to build a prediction model for betting MLB futures and individual games from the outset of a season. But trying to do something like that for football, let alone college football, strikes me as a much more difficult exercise.

[NDSUBowler]

A 13 point line would imply approximately a 17% chance of an NDSU victory.
Moneyline came out NDSU +350 KSU -530

Using a vig free calculator that puts NDSU +379

Means 20.9% chance to win.

[bisonaudit]

States' Rights.

/purple > human rights. /purple

[Bisonator98]

And, exactly how is Massey's model coming up with those numbers?

I just can't see any way a computer model can predict scores for this year using fresh information....only information from last year, which would only be good for a general startpoint. Add in roster changes (or lack of in NDSU's case) and such and the predictions become much harder to make.

If you want to use a last year's model. Sagarin would have had 2012 KSU vs 2012 NDSU as a 14ish pt favorite for KSU. Then adjust for this year accordingly...I can't see it spitting out a MUCH bigger favorite in KSU's direction.

Exactly. It's like we got worse while losing 3-4 starters and KSU got better by losing 11. Doesn't make sense.

[gumby013]

I don't know what kind of score that gumby's system is spitting out. However, a buddy of mine that is a mathematical wizard from UT created a model that is the most accurate I've ever seen, even above the ones discussed. He actually has built in a methodology to factor in graduation,etc. and injuries during mid-season.

With his model, using your LY contributors/starters vs our returning contributors/starters he gets a point spread of 17 with a score of 31-14.

No score estimation from mine...yet. I may try to implement that module in the next year or so. Basic methodology for mine is to run roughly 20,000 simulations and compare that to the real game results. After that, apply ratings to each team. Use those ratings to re-run the simulations. Repeat the process until the variance from one rating iteration to the next approaches zero.

Pre-season computer models are basically useless. They rely on human input to estimate the value of all changes from year to year. Not saying mine is any better at pre-season, just saying they are all crap.

I'll have real rankings from mine using 2013 games after week 6. That's when I am showing all teams should be linked by 2 or more games.

[NDSUBowler]

I recently finished an interesting book "Trading Bases" by Joe Peta that used projections of current year performance based on individual player history, aging curves, roster composition changes, etc. to build a prediction model for betting MLB futures and individual games from the outset of a season. But trying to do something like that for football, let alone college football, strikes me as a much more difficult exercise.
I was just reading Nate Silver's chapter on his development of PECOTA a few days ago and the discussion on aging curves. I wonder how that could be implemented with roster changes and such to help build that model.

But yeah...football, college especially, has such high turnover rates and such a highly variable developmental rate that it would be IMPOSSIBLE to get a true model to use for predicting the future. In baseball, you won't have to worry as much about injuries or impacts of injuries on the rest of the team since its such an individual's game. Just wayyyyy too many uncontrolled variables.

Add in the fact the college kids are at the age where they all develop quite different. Silver even talked about how hard it is to predict minor leaguers out to the majors...I would imagine its exponentially harder to do that with college football players.

[Bookie Pimp]

No score estimation from mine...yet. I may try to implement that module in the next year or so. Basic methodology for mine is to run roughly 20,000 simulations and compare that to the real game results. After that, apply ratings to each team. Use those ratings to re-run the simulations. Repeat the process until the variance from one rating iteration to the next approaches zero.

Pre-season computer models are basically useless. They rely on human input to estimate the value of all changes from year to year. Not saying mine is any better at pre-season, just saying they are all crap.

I'll have real rankings from mine using 2013 games after week 6. That's when I am showing all teams should be linked by 2 or more games.

This isn't necessarily true unless, of course, one assumes that there were no substitutions the previous years and that all 11 starters on both sides of the ball took 100% of the snaps.

Some reserves rotate more than others, but one can extrapolate data from "meaningful snaps" played in prior contests. Therefore, models that are VERY successful for early season predictions already exist.

While the "easy way" would be as you said to simply "estimate the value" of kids moving up, there is often empirical data to be used although it's not foolproof either.

[bisonaudit]

I was just reading Nate Silver's chapter on his development of PECOTA a few days ago and the discussion on aging curves. I wonder how that could be implemented with roster changes and such to help build that model.

But yeah...football, college especially, has such high turnover rates and such a highly variable developmental rate that it would be IMPOSSIBLE to get a true model to use for predicting the future. In baseball, you won't have to worry as much about injuries or impacts of injuries on the rest of the team since its such an individual's game. Just wayyyyy too many uncontrolled variables.

Add in the fact the college kids are at the age where they all develop quite different. Silver even talked about how hard it is to predict minor leaguers out to the majors...I would imagine its exponentially harder to do that with college football players.

I don't have my iPad with me to double check it but I'm fairly certain that Mr. Peta actually did employ the PECOTA projections.

[gumby013]

We've turned this thread into a Lambda Lambda Lambda reunion.

[344Johnson]

We've turned this thread into a Lambda Lambda Lambda reunion.

Yeah my brain isn't in the mood to handle statistics.

[IzzyFlexion]

Good post! I wish more people would act like themselves rather then feel the need to have some sort of internet alter ego!

I'm sure that you NEVER got made fun of in school for having the name Bisonator98. Must look odd on your driver's license.

[gumby013]

Line on 5 Dimes has gone down to +13.

[td577]

States' Rights.

Bingo.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk - now Free (http://tapatalk.com/m/)

[NDSUBowler]

Line on 5 Dimes has gone down to +13.
Uh...it was +13 when I made this thread Thursday (and I posted a pic of it in the OP even!)

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

Uh...it was +13 when I made this thread Thursday (and I posted a pic of it in the OP even!)

Sue him for plagiarism.

Or is it Sioux?

[gumby013]

Uh...it was +13 when I made this thread Thursday (and I posted a pic of it in the OP even!)

Apologies, when I checked it yesterday it was at +14.5.

[NDSUBowler]

Apologies, when I checked it yesterday it was at +14.5.
ARG!

I checked yesterday hoping it would go up so I can put more on it.

In future, if you see it rise, drop a note in here please!

[IzzyFlexion]

arg!

I checked yesterday hoping it would go up so i can put more on it.

In future, if you see it rise, drop a note in here please! *

*twrtos.......

[NDSUBowler]

*twrtos.......
http://images.politico.com/global/2012/04/120405_firstpitch_bush41_reut_328_605.jpg

[NDSUBowler]

Line is back to +14

[KSUfanPittSUalum]

Vegasinsider.com has the line at KSU -14.5 this evening.

http://www.vegasinsider.com/college-football/teams/team-page.cfm/team/north-dakota-state

[Bison 4 Life]

I would bet anything outside of 10 pts.

[Bookie Pimp]

I would bet anything outside of 10 pts.

5dimes.eu went to 15 today... Hang tight. It'll get close to 18 by kickoff.

[Bison 4 Life]

5dimes.eu went to 15 today... Hang tight. It'll get close to 18 by kickoff.

and a lot of people making money +18 at the final whistle.

[ndsubison1]

+18 Burgundy, Lakes, Dragonsfan, and Slic will be hittin this!

[Bookie Pimp]

and a lot of people making money +18 at the final whistle.

Those people are called "bookmakers".

:biggrin:

[IzzyFlexion]

Those people are called "bookmakers".

:biggrin:

http://static4.fjcdn.com/comments/Oh+I+see+what+you+did+there.++++you+_43eae8abcce0b 2655896d538f0e20015.jpg

[Facts]

I found this interesting: In 9 games vs FBS opponents NDSU has allowed an average of 17 ppg. In the last two years they've allowed 12.1 ppg (30 games). That's the team as a whole, not just the defense.

[NDSUBowler]

5dimes.eu went to 15 today... Hang tight. It'll get close to 18 by kickoff.
Or it'll go back to 13, which is where it is now.

*shrug*

[MNLonghorn10]

Or it'll go back to 13, which is where it is now.

*shrug*
You mean nooln ksu fans think this game will be close??? Shocked

[SamsRams]

5dimes.eu went to 15 today... Hang tight. It'll get close to 18 by kickoff.

Anything over 17 is ridiculously easy money if you take the NDSU side. I hope you at least consider middling that if it hits 18 (which I both think we can realistically say will never happen)

[Bookie Pimp]

Anything over 17 is ridiculously easy money if you take the NDSU side. I hope you at least consider middling that if it hits 18 (which I both think we can realistically say will never happen)

I get your thought's on the middle, and agree it's "ridiculously easy money" where the line is now. However, I wouldn't consider middling it because I feel it's very safe up to 21....

[westnodak93bison]

I get your thought's on the middle, and agree it's "ridiculously easy money" where the line is now. However, I wouldn't consider middling it because I feel it's very safe up to 21....

How do you figure? End of last year Sagarin would have had k-state by 14. We all know what each team brings back.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

[bri-dog]

I don't know what book they're using, but Fox Sports Live just listed it at 14.5...

[Bookie Pimp]

How do you figure? End of last year Sagarin would have had k-state by 14. We all know what each team brings back.


A combination of two mathematical algorithms (including Massey) that are FAR more accurate game predictors than Sagarin has ever been, along with some information that has not been made public.

We do all know what each team brings back. What NDSU brings back is a "known commodity". While many of K-State's returning contributors didn't "start", I feel they're being dramatically undervalued. Further, we have an athlete on our team that we weren't able to fully showcase last year due to Klein's limitations. That is no longer the case.

As a point of interest, did you realize that Ga Southern should've only been a 15 pt dog to Georgia (45-14) by Sagarin's ratings last fall at game time? That same GSU team now shows as a 10 pt dog to NDSU on a "neutral field" and I think we all know that isn't even CLOSE to reality.



Good luck and good health to all those playing the other side, however.

[MNLonghorn10]

Bookie's just in denial that because his team is coming off their best season ever as a program, theyre still less than 2 td favorites (on a neutral field) vs a FCS team that hands out 20 less schollies, smaller athletic budget, nicer facilities etc.



the back pedaling done here by Kstate fans is hilarious. They just can't accept it.

If NDSU opened up as 2 td favorites vs Minnesota St University of Moorhead...I sure wouldn't deflect like KState fans are doing.

[Bisonator98]

A combination of two mathematical algorithms (including Massey) that are FAR more accurate game predictors than Sagarin has ever been, along with some information that has not been made public.

We do all know what each team brings back. What NDSU brings back is a "known commodity". While many of K-State's returning contributors didn't "start", I feel they're being dramatically undervalued. Further, we have an athlete on our team that we weren't able to fully showcase last year due to Klein's limitations. That is no longer the case.

As a point of interest, did you realize that Ga Southern should've only been a 15 pt dog to Georgia (45-14) by Sagarin's ratings last fall at game time? That same GSU team now shows as a 10 pt dog to NDSU on a "neutral field" and I think we all know that isn't even CLOSE to reality.



Good luck and good health to all those playing the other side, however.

ooooh.......wonder what this could be? Maybe Snyder telling his team to win one for the gipper?? :rofl:

[BisonNation11]

A combination of two mathematical algorithms (including Massey) that are FAR more accurate game predictors than Sagarin has ever been, along with some information that has not been made public.

We do all know what each team brings back. What NDSU brings back is a "known commodity". While many of K-State's returning contributors didn't "start", I feel they're being dramatically undervalued. Further, we have an athlete on our team that we weren't able to fully showcase last year due to Klein's limitations. That is no longer the case.

As a point of interest, did you realize that Ga Southern should've only been a 15 pt dog to Georgia (45-14) by Sagarin's ratings last fall at game time? That same GSU team now shows as a 10 pt dog to NDSU on a "neutral field" and I think we all know that isn't even CLOSE to reality.



Good luck and good health to all those playing the other side, however.

Until a commodity is proven, it will always be undervalued. Hope your team can leverage that otherwise they will live up to their undervalued reputation and those of us smart enough will be making some easy money.

[SDbison]

How do you figure? End of last year Sagarin would have had k-state by 14. We all know what each team brings back.

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2 According to all the delusional KSU fans coach Snyder is a miracle worker and will be able to get all those defensive players with limited experience to play like veterans in their first starting role including a QB new to his system. Almost laughable. Its all a smoke screen as in reality they know there are many weak spots that are subject to miscues. But, but, but, FBS superiority and ButtSnyder will prevail just because K-state has such a long and storied winning tradition.

[Bookie Pimp]

Bookie's just in denial that because his team is coming off their best season ever as a program, theyre still less than 2 td favorites (on a neutral field) vs a FCS team that hands out 20 less schollies, smaller athletic budget, nicer facilities etc.



the back pedaling done here by Kstate fans is hilarious. They just can't accept it.

If NDSU opened up as 2 td favorites vs Minnesota St University of Moorhead...I sure wouldn't deflect like KState fans are doing.


I'm not in denial about anything, nor am I deflecting, Lollypopkid. I'm GLAD that this line is as short as it is... Almost seems to good to be true.

[THEsocalledfan]

According to all the delusional KSU fans coach Snyder is a miracle worker and will be able to get all those defensive players with limited experience to play like veterans in their first starting role including a QB new to his system. Almost laughable. Its all a smoke screen as in reality they know there are many weak spots that are subject to miscues. But, but, but, FBS superiority and ButtSnyder will prevail just because K-state has such a long and storied winning tradition.

Man, do I hope your are right. My son, LG, 10 yo, thinks it is laughable that K State is favored. He keeps saying, "NDSU won the NCAA championship, so how could K State possibly win?" (I have tried to point out the error in this logic, to no avail.) He is sticking tight that NDSU will win. I don't want to see the little guy disappointed.

With that said, there is a clear point, here. Last year, what games did NDSU absolutely have to win? Second SDSU, Wofford, Go. S., and SHS in title game. Last year, K State had to win with Baylor and Oregon. (I do acknowledge they had to win many games to make these high stakes games.) They lost both with their star QB. Further, NDSU has their whole team back.

The only problem is NDSU does not have to win this game to win a title again, but they do need to win this game to be remembered by the populace at large.

[dragonsfan]

Bookie's just in denial that because his team is coming off their best season ever as a program, theyre still less than 2 td favorites (on a neutral field) vs a FCS team that hands out 20 less schollies, smaller athletic budget, nicer facilities etc.



the back pedaling done here by Kstate fans is hilarious. They just can't accept it.

If NDSU opened up as 2 td favorites vs Minnesota St University of Moorhead...I sure wouldn't deflect like KState fans are doing.

my msum team would be about +25 vs NDSU Laqua is turning us around.

[MNLonghorn10]

I'm not in denial about anything, nor am I deflecting, Lollypopkid. I'm GLAD that this line is as short as it is... Almost seems to good to be true.

Again..if ndsu was at -13.5 at ANY point against msum...I'd be concerned about my teams chances. Funny how anyone other than ksu fans see this

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

A combination of two mathematical algorithms (including Massey) that are FAR more accurate game predictors than Sagarin has ever been, along with some information that has not been made public.

We do all know what each team brings back. What NDSU brings back is a "known commodity". While many of K-State's returning contributors didn't "start", I feel they're being dramatically undervalued. Further, we have an athlete on our team that we weren't able to fully showcase last year due to Klein's limitations. That is no longer the case.

As a point of interest, did you realize that Ga Southern should've only been a 15 pt dog to Georgia (45-14) by Sagarin's ratings last fall at game time? That same GSU team now shows as a 10 pt dog to NDSU on a "neutral field" and I think we all know that isn't even CLOSE to reality.



Good luck and good health to all those playing the other side, however.

LOL, algorithms. Last time I checked, algorithms don't play the game.

However, KSU's gigantic offensive line will be playing. Your line scares me a hell of a lot more than algorithms ever will.

[westnodak93bison]

I'm not in denial about anything, nor am I deflecting, Lollypopkid. I'm GLAD that this line is as short as it is... Almost seems to good to be true.

Keep thinking like that and you will need to change your screen name to "bookie broke"

Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2

[SamsRams]

Little birdie told me LVH line will open in Vegas tonight at -13

[onbison09]

My dad bet $100 that K-State wouldn't cover 21. I told him he was dumb to bet that much on a football game in the first place but I don't think it's a bad bet.

[SamsRams]

Just put a fat stack on NDSU +13.5 at LVH. Would have loved 14 but I fly out tonight and cant risk having my roommate make the bet

[NDSUBowler]

I got a decent chunk at +13 and then added a bit more at +14. I hope line moves hard next 2 days and I can get more at +15