Massey rating 2013

[NDSU1980]

Well, Massey has us going 10-1, only loss at Kansas State. After that, the next closest game is SDSU, Bison by 7. Looks like everyone knows the the Herd will Thunder again.

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5545&s=199231

[tmcats]

wow, you guys don't play the fightin' flickertails?

[MNLonghorn10]

Well, Massey has us going 10-1, only loss at Kansas State. After that, the next closest game is SDSU, Bison by 7. Looks like everyone knows the the Herd will Thunder again.

http://www.masseyratings.com/team.php?t=5545&s=199231
You know those rating systems are flawed. They don't take in account houses that have, uh, more than two television sets and other - other things of that nature.

[HerdBot]

wow, you guys don't play the fightin' flickertails?

after reading that comment it's quite obvious you are from the area and probably a troll. An outsider would not pick up on that.

[Hammerhead]

We used to play the flickertails (later known as the Fighting Sioux and who now have no nickname), but not in recent years.

NDSU will be a much harder game than Mass. or ULL. Those other teams were down around 200 in the Sagarin ratings last year.

Edit. I thought a 10% chance of winning according to Massey was good until I saw they gave ULL at 8% chance. :(


wow, you guys don't play the fightin' flickertails?

[SDbison]

No way Kansas State is 8th best DI team (12th for D, 12th for O) after losing what they did on defense and their all star QB. I see the Bison are ranked 57th (26th on D, 84th on O). Hopefully with everyone coming back for NDSU they are more like 40th and with Kansas State losing what they did more like 30th.

[td577]

No way Kansas State is 8th best DI team (12th for D, 12th for O) after losing what they did on defense and their all star QB. I see the Bison are ranked 57th (26th on D, 84th on O). Hopefully with everyone coming back for NDSU they are more like 40th and with Kansas State losing what they did more like 30th.

I was thinking the same thing. NDSU should be at least 10 spots higher and ksu at least 15 spots lower. If you said 40-45 for the Bison and 25-30 for ksu, I would think their system is pretty tight. Considering NDSU was 35 on the last Sagarin ranking and KSU was 8 while one team is pretty much intact, while the other is filling a lot of holes. I think if you included variables like graduating players these two teams are really not that far apart. It would not be a App State/Michigan type upset if the Bison were to win. It would be slightly bigger than a Baylor over ksu upset.

[tjbison]

You know those rating systems are flawed. They don't take in account houses that have, uh, more than two television sets and other - other things of that nature.

this is totally true.........

[tjbison]

anyone else think the 99% chance of beating Ferris St and the 100% chance of beating DSU should be flopped? maybe not but then again it's a 95% chance we beat USD so what's that say for them

[gumby013]

I'm finishing up the last touches on my ranking system. I've run last year's games through it. Based on those we are 99.44% to win at home vs DSU. 99.9917% at home vs Ferris.

[gumby013]

Here's the simulation for Bison vs all FBS and FCS based on last year's games. Home, Away, and Neutral fields. This is from my system, not Massey.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auz9fmCa7_MsdGV3Rk4wWGRvLUFzUl8wZlFrSHRQS kE&usp=sharing

[KSBisonFan]

Here's the simulation for Bison vs all FBS and FCS based on last year's games. Home, Away, and Neutral fields. This is from my system, not Massey.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auz9fmCa7_MsdGV3Rk4wWGRvLUFzUl8wZlFrSHRQS kE&usp=sharing

So we'd lose 41% of the time on the road at NDSU? Wow. I hope we don't have to go to NDSU for a playoff game.

[gumby013]

[QUOTE=KSBisonFan;748285]So we'd lose 41% of the time on the road at NDSU? Wow. I hope we don't have to go to NDSU for a playoff game.[/QUOT

Nope, the Bison would win 41% of the time playing on the road against the Bison...

[A1pigskin]

Nice spreadsheet

[IndyBison]

Here's the simulation for Bison vs all FBS and FCS based on last year's games. Home, Away, and Neutral fields. This is from my system, not Massey.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auz9fmCa7_MsdGV3Rk4wWGRvLUFzUl8wZlFrSHRQS kE&usp=sharing

Based on your system the two top teams in the Big Ten are Northwestern and Ohio State. Interesting. Many of these seem a little high but no system is perfect. Nice work.

[td577]

The one that surprised me the most was the percentages against GSU. I figured they would be more like 75% at home, 60% away, and 65% at a neutral site. They weren't that far off that, but they they certainly didn't play a perfect game against us either and had a chance to win. The couple of things that also stuck out were the lowest winning percentage were MVFC teams and the very lowest percentages were the teams the BISON played in the playoffs. I thought Wofford would also have a little better numbers. Their worse loss was to Samford and it wasn't like they sucked.

[DjKyRo]

I'm finishing up the last touches on my ranking system. I've run last year's games through it. Based on those we are 99.44% to win at home vs DSU. 99.9917% at home vs Ferris.

We need a Ferris fan to cue the "so you're saying there's a chance."

[SamsRams]

We need a Ferris fan to cue the "so you're saying there's a chance."

No chance, but let's remember NDSU is their first game so they will be preparing for NDSU a lot longer than NDSU will prepare for them. They could make it a really interesting first half

[Vitojr130]

I'm finishing up the last touches on my ranking system. I've run last year's games through it. Based on those we are 99.44% to win at home vs DSU. 99.9917% at home vs Ferris.

I think it needs some work still.

>pic related
2950

[Vitojr130]

No chance, but let's remember NDSU is their first game so they will be preparing for NDSU a lot longer than NDSU will prepare for them. They could make it a really interesting first half

Not to mention they've kept it interesting before. I don't think they have any chance of winning, but they could definitely keep us entertained

[gumby013]

I've been working on this system for the last three years. I think it's ready for prime time. I'll be doing full rankings releases this year after week 6 or 7. Not sure when enough games will have been played to ensure all teams are linked. The Ivys mess this up with their late start and limited OOC. I'll be ranking FBS, FCS, as well as an overall D1.

The game simulator was a byproduct of the rankings system.

[Kansas State U]

Here's the simulation for Bison vs all FBS and FCS based on last year's games. Home, Away, and Neutral fields. This is from my system, not Massey.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auz9fmCa7_MsdGV3Rk4wWGRvLUFzUl8wZlFrSHRQS kE&usp=sharing

I obviously have no idea what your criteria / formulas / # of simulations that were taken into account to arrive at your conclusions, but I'll assume it was well thought out. My (serious) question is, under what scenario could you possibly have come up with even 1 win in 100 games at home against Alabama, let alone 8?

[gumby013]

I obviously have no idea what your criteria / formulas / # of simulations that were taken into account to arrive at your conclusions, but I'll assume it was well thought out. My (serious) question is, under what scenario could you possibly have come up with even 1 win in 100 games at home against Alabama, let alone 8?

I hadn't actually occurred to me to calculate how many simulations it runs for an entire season...so I calculated it. Just over 20K game simulations for 1 season. Plug all of the games in and let it run, it will simulate and re-feed the results back into itself about 15 times. The number of iterations is fluid. It keeps going until the variance from one iteration to the next falls below a certain threshold. But, the average seems to be about 15.

Actual game scenarios where NDSU wins 8/100 games in Fargo? No idea...but flukes do occur. FCS teams did win 10 games last year against FBS teams, and they will win more this year.

[GPSIT]

So is this "Gumby Ratings"?

[gumby013]

So is this "Gumby Ratings"?

No, I have a name for it and all the related domains, social media, ect are in place. I'm planning on launching everything week 1, with the first rankings out after week 6 or 7.

[gumby013]

For anyone interested, here's the full simulation for KSU.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Auz9fmCa7_MsdFNvWEtmTF82aUQyd2ZQM2J5YWV4O EE&usp=sharing

[MNLonghorn10]

Hahah @ Valparaiso

[gumby013]

Hahah @ Valparaiso

Campbell is even worse. They were the lowest rated team last year by a lot.

[BisonNeil]

No way Kansas State is 8th best DI team (12th for D, 12th for O) after losing what they did on defense and their all star QB. I see the Bison are ranked 57th (26th on D, 84th on O). Hopefully with everyone coming back for NDSU they are more like 40th and with Kansas State losing what they did more like 30th.

Looks like the pre-season coaches poll puts K State in at about #26.

[devin45k]

I like the information they have on there. I never knew the NDSU vs. SDSU rivalry was as lopsided as it is 41-12-1

Did not know we were 16-10 all time against Northern Iowa either.

[aces1180]

I like the information they have on there. I never knew the NDSU vs. SDSU rivalry was as lopsided as it is 41-12-1

Did not know we were 16-10 all time against Northern Iowa either.

NDSU has played SDSU more than 55 times...Seems as though those numbers are whack.

[GSUsTALON]

The one that surprised me the most was the percentages against GSU. I figured they would be more like 75% at home, 60% away, and 65% at a neutral site. They weren't that far off that, but they they certainly didn't play a perfect game against us either and had a chance to win. The couple of things that also stuck out were the lowest winning percentage were MVFC teams and the very lowest percentages were the teams the BISON played in the playoffs. I thought Wofford would also have a little better numbers. Their worse loss was to Samford and it wasn't like they sucked.

Sadly GSU and the Bison will not meet in the Playoffs this year. I really was looking forword to that game. I think your the odds on fav for a 3 peat & hope you get it.
The only comp between GSU and NDSU is to see who is ranked #1 at the end of the season. I think GSU has a chance at a 10-1 season also. It may come down to who plays their FBS opponent closest. GSU vs Florida and NDSU vs K- State. I hope NDSU can pull the upset.

Party On Bison
GSUsTALON

[tony]

Sadly GSU and the Bison will not meet in the Playoffs this year. I really was looking forword to that game. I think your the odds on fav for a 3 peat & hope you get it.
The only comp between GSU and NDSU is to see who is ranked #1 at the end of the season. I think GSU has a chance at a 10-1 season also. It may come down to who plays their FBS opponent closest. GSU vs Florida and NDSU vs K- State. I hope NDSU can pull the upset.

Party On Bison
GSUsTALON

NDSU finished 10-1 twice and beat three FBS teams in those two years. The highest rating the Bison got at the end of the season was fifth. If GSU goes undefeated, the could have the #1 ranking in the final regular-season poll but will drop when the playoffs are over.

[GSUsTALON]

NDSU finished 10-1 twice and beat three FBS teams in those two years. The highest rating the Bison got at the end of the season was fifth. If GSU goes undefeated, the could have the #1 ranking in the final regular-season poll but will drop when the playoffs are over.

Well in most polls your ranked #1 at the beginning of 2013. GSU is ranked #2 or in the top 4. If both NDSU and GSU go 10-1 it will be a tight race for the #1 & #2 spot.

Party On Tony & best of luck in the hunt for your 3rd NC in FCS.
TALON

[devin45k]

NDSU has played SDSU more than 55 times...Seems as though those numbers are whack.

Dang....does anyone have a link of the correct numbers?

I was playing around with the predictor and it has U Mary putting on 3 points against us and Delaware state getting blanked

[344Johnson]

Dang....does anyone have a link of the correct numbers?

I was playing around with the predictor and it has U Mary putting on 3 points against us and Delaware state getting blanked

seems legit. Some of our players know some of theirs and would feel obligated to let them cash in on a field goal. (Carlton would not be allowed on the field for that play)

[Hammerhead]

The 2012 media guide had NDSU leading the series 53-40-5
NDSU has played SDSU more than 55 times...Seems as though those numbers are whack.

[devin45k]

The 2012 media guide had NDSU leading the series 53-40-5

That seems more accurate. I am assuming it is 55-40-5 now.

We are still kings.....

I keep playing around with the predictions against other teams. I can confirm that we would be predicted to beat the Manitoba Bisons 67-0.


I am pretty sure the 41-12-1 record is the record going back to 1960.

[NDSUdonny]

[QUOTE=KSBisonFan;748285]So we'd lose 41% of the time on the road at NDSU? Wow. I hope we don't have to go to NDSU for a playoff game.[/QUOT

Nope, the Bison would win 41% of the time playing on the road against the Bison...

15 tries last year, only beat ourselves once

[Vitojr130]

I like the information they have on there. I never knew the NDSU vs. SDSU rivalry was as lopsided as it is 41-12-1

Did not know we were 16-10 all time against Northern Iowa either.

Well, they haven't beat us at home since before the dome was constructed or something ridiculous like that.

[Vitojr130]

That seems more accurate. I am assuming it is 55-40-5 now.

We are still kings.....

I keep playing around with the predictions against other teams. I can confirm that we would be predicted to beat the Manitoba Bisons 67-0.

You should know better :rofl:

[devin45k]

Well, they haven't beat us at home since before the dome was constructed or something ridiculous like that.

Once a couple years ago and I think that was it

[Vitojr130]

Once a couple years ago and I think that was it

Oh yes, 2008. That was their first win in Fargo since 1962 though...

[devin45k]

Oh yes, 2008. That was their first win in Fargo since 1962 though...

Yes, you could see that by the way they celebrated after the game lol

[SafeTeeJ]

Got this tidbit from bighitter#7

Look up the 1990 Bison final Massey rating. Then look up GSUs final rating.
Southern speed applied then as well....

[devin45k]

Got this tidbit from bighitter#7

Look up the 1990 Bison final Massey rating. Then look up GSUs final rating.
Southern speed applied then as well....

Division 2 with a ranking of 46th in the nation is nuts

[gumby013]

Division 2 with a ranking of 46th in the nation is nuts

One of the reasons I don't like Massey. Large margins of victory can cause large swings in their algorithm. I guarantee winning the D2 chipper by 40 caused that ridiculousness.

[GSUsTALON]

Got this tidbit from bighitter#7

Look up the 1990 Bison final Massey rating. Then look up GSUs final rating.
Southern speed applied then as well....

I cant find it . What did Massey say. And what did he say about the 1999 GSU team?

[SafeTeeJ]

1990 div II natl champs Massey rating of 46

1990 div 1A champs Massey rating of 47

[gumby013]

Launched the site for my ranking system this morning.

www.PureCFR.com (http://www.purecfr.com)

[NovaBison]

Massey updated based on Week 1 results... we moved up to #31 in all of D1 (still #1 in FCS obviously)... I know its not that accurate this early in the season, but it is still fun to look at.

http://masseyratings.com/rate.php?s=cf2013&sub=11590

[Castor Troy]

KSU is ranked 18th. Did I read that correctly? If so I think that is a huge compliment for our Bison.

[gumby013]

KSU is ranked 18th. Did I read that correctly? If so I think that is a huge compliment for our Bison.

It's using data mostly from last year.

[Bisonguy]

One of the reasons I don't like Massey. Large margins of victory can cause large swings in their algorithm. I guarantee winning the D2 chipper by 40 caused that ridiculousness.

I emailed Massey a few years ago and he stated his rankings were significantly more accurate when only looking within a division/subdivision. He stated even the FCS schools might be up to 10 spots too high and the D2's might be closer to 20 spots too high.

[devin45k]

KSU is ranked 18th. Did I read that correctly? If so I think that is a huge compliment for our Bison.

I am pretty sure they were ranked 8th before the game.