San Diego contemplating not kicking or punting inside the 50

[bisonaudit]

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2012/aug/11/aztecs-long-consider-fourth-down-gambit/?page=1#article

Hopefully they have the stones to give this a chance.

[HerdBot]

If you go for it on 4th and 7 inside the 50 and make it, the odds are going to go down if you have to go for it again what 2, 3 or 4 more times? Typically 3rd down conversion rates are in the 30-40% range. Same with 4th downs. So odds are you will turn the ball over 1/3 of the time. Am I wrong? And if the the ball is turned over your going to have to put together a longer drive anyway and you put more pressure on your defense.

Onside kicks? Not sure about college but in the NFL they are successful 26% of the time. (when they are expecting them) Surprise ones work better.

Doesn't make sense.Sounds like he has zero faith in his kicking game and defense. Maybe if your offense is amazing, go for it on 4th down more frequently inside the 50 but ever time?

This guy is a moron trying to reinvent the wheel. You will allow 3-4 easy field goals every game on onside kicks. Coaches will adjust

[bisonaudit]

If you go for it on 4th and 7 inside the 50 and make it, the odds are going to go down if you have to go for it again what 2, 3 or 4 more times? Typically 3rd down conversion rates are in the 30-40% range. Same with 4th downs. So odds are you will turn the ball over 1/3 of the time. Am I wrong? And if the the ball is turned over your going to have to put together a longer drive anyway and you put more pressure on your defense.

Onside kicks? Not sure about college but in the NFL they are successful 26% of the time. (when they are expecting them) Surprise ones work better.

Doesn't make sense.Sounds like he has zero faith in his kicking game and defense. Maybe if your offense is amazing, go for it on 4th down more frequently inside the 50 but ever time?

This guy is a moron trying to reinvent the wheel. You will allow 3-4 easy field goals every game.

All of your arguments are focused on the negative consequences of failure while you appear to be completely ignoring the benefits of success.

Knowing that you have 4 downs to make 10 yards changes what you're going to do with the first 3 downs which may decrease the relevance of historical conversion percentages (whatever they happen to be). Scoring 7 (or 8) is better than scoring 3. Better field position puts less pressure on your defense not more as does not being on the field at all.

I don't think SDSU is contemplating the on-side kick strategy.

He may not have much faith in his kicking game. If that attitude is justified it only enhances the argument for trying this strategy because the expected points from attempting a FG or punting in an attempt to improve field position will be reduced if the quality of their kickers are poor.

I'm not sure what it says about the defense. If you're already past mid-field you're not putting your defense in a terrible spot, just a less good one. To me, if you're clear with your players on both sides of the ball about what the strategy is and you're consistent about it from the beginning you're not creating a confidence problem for either the offense or the defense, it's just the way that you're playing football, it's not a judgement about your confidence in a particular unit.

I'm very interested to see what happens with this. There's quite a bit of evidence that suggests that coaches in college and the NFL are way to conservative in their kicking, punting, and 4th down choices, but if SDSU implements this strategy it'll be the first real field test at that level that I'm aware of.

[ndsubison1]

i would depends on the defense and situation, but i think 4th and short you should always go for it inside the 50

[HerdBot]

H
All of your arguments are focused on the negative consequences of failure while you appear to be completely ignoring the benefits of success.

Knowing that you have 4 downs to make 10 yards changes what you're going to do with the first 3 downs which may decrease the relevance of historical conversion percentages (whatever they happen to be). Scoring 7 (or 8) is better than scoring 3. Better field position puts less pressure on your defense not more as does not being on the field at all.

I don't think SDSU is contemplating the on-side kick strategy.

He may not have much faith in his kicking game. If that attitude is justified it only enhances the argument for trying this strategy because the expected points from attempting a FG or punting in an attempt to improve field position will be reduced if the quality of their kickers are poor.

I'm not sure what it says about the defense. If you're already past mid-field you're not putting your defense in a terrible spot, just a less good one. To me, if you're clear with your players on both sides of the ball about what the strategy is and you're consistent about it from the beginning you're not creating a confidence problem for either the offense or the defense, it's just the way that you're playing football, it's not a judgement about your confidence in a particular unit.

I'm very interested to see what happens with this. There's quite a bit of evidence that suggests that coaches in college and the NFL are way to conservative in their kicking, punting, and 4th down choices, but if SDSU implements this strategy it'll be the first real field test at that level that I'm aware of.

True depends on the makeup of your team. The 98 Vikings or 2000 Rams could have gone the entire season and not punt with incredible offenses and less than stellar defenses while the 2010 Bison it would have been an epic failure. I think if it changes the way you play on first or 2nd down... maybe? But if you throw on 1st and 2nd you're your going to find yourself in more 3rd and longs anyway. I dunno. There's a reason football strategy hasn't changed much over modern times.

Think back to the Georgia Southern game. What was the turning point. Kickoff that went out of bounds after a TD. All field position. And giving tbe other team great field position changes the way they play offenses too

[tony]

The 1990 Bison almost did that - only made 2 FGs the entire year and punted only 30 times (in 14 games.)

[KSBisonFan]

This article goes back to when the Arkansas HS coach first started this philosophy and he explains his strategy/calculations.

http://highschool.rivals.com/content.asp?CID=892888

[reformedUNDfan]

teams definitely punt too much in the middle of the field.

Also, i think the actual calculations would be a little more complex than his calculations, granted there could be more to it than his brief quote.

[NorthernBison]

To understand this you cannot think of offensive playcalling in the traditional way. An example is the CFL where you have only THREE DOWNS. You don't see a lot of designed running plays in that league. That's even with a bunch of wacky rules like everybody in motion that should open up the field to the run.

This would be exactly the opposite type of approach. You know you have 4 downs and the decision to use all of them has already been made. Therefore, a 2.5 yard play is totally acceptable (even a goal).

[Tatanka]

This guy is a moron
Now that's saying something.

[bisonaudit]

teams definitely punt too much in the middle of the field.

Also, i think the actual calculations would be a little more complex than his calculations, granted there could be more to it than his brief quote.



Math and stuff:

http://pigskinrevolution.com/index.html

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2011/11/how-to-talk-to-skeptic-about-risky-4th.html

[BisonAccountant44]

If you go for it on 4th and 7 inside the 50 and make it, the odds are going to go down if you have to go for it again what 2, 3 or 4 more times? Typically 3rd down conversion rates are in the 30-40% range. Same with 4th downs. So odds are you will turn the ball over 1/3 of the time. Am I wrong? And if the the ball is turned over your going to have to put together a longer drive anyway and you put more pressure on your defense.

Onside kicks? Not sure about college but in the NFL they are successful 26% of the time. (when they are expecting them) Surprise ones work better.

Doesn't make sense.Sounds like he has zero faith in his kicking game and defense. Maybe if your offense is amazing, go for it on 4th down more frequently inside the 50 but ever time?

This guy is a moron trying to reinvent the wheel. You will allow 3-4 easy field goals every game on onside kicks. Coaches will adjust

And if you end up with a touchback after a punt on 4th and 3 from the 40 you net 20 yards because you didn't have enough faith in your O to get 3 yards when, on average, they should get about 5 (In 2011 the Bison and their opponents combined for to average of 5.3 yards per play).

Is that 20 yards really putting that much "more stress" on your defense? Taking your same argument, how about the confidence it says you don't have in your offence? Afterall they get 5 yards per play on average, but you just told them they weren't capable of getting 3.

You can throw out all the one time situations you want, but no matter how you do the math, BA is right in the long run. People punt far too much.

[SDSUAlum08]

Everyone always calls something crazy until it works. NDSU and SDSU shouldn't have went D1 right?

Not saying it's right but I like people who go out on a limb and try something different.

[Bison bison]

Think back to the Georgia Southern game. What was the turning point. Kickoff that went out of bounds after a TD. All field position. And giving tbe other team great field position changes the way they play offenses too


Colten Heagle being the immortal spawn of a phoenix and Wonder Woman 20 years ago.

[The_Sicatoka]

This isn't "San Diego", like Pioneer League U of San Diego, or U of Cal at San Diego (UCSD).

This is San Diego State, the Aztecs, considering this plan.

UND will be seeing this decision upclose and personal on September 15.

[KSBisonFan]

This isn't "San Diego", like UCSD; this is San Diego State considering this plan.

UND will be seeing this decision with 100% effectiveness up close and personal on September 15.

Fify.......

[TransAmBison]

This isn't "San Diego", like Pioneer League U of San Diego, or U of Cal at San Diego (UCSD).

This is San Diego State, the Aztecs, considering this plan.

UND will be seeing this decision upclose and personal on September 15.That is if teh UND can force them into a fourth down...

[NDSU1980]

This isn't "San Diego", like Pioneer League U of San Diego, or U of Cal at San Diego (UCSD).

This is San Diego State, the Aztecs, considering this plan.

UND will be seeing this decision upclose and personal on September 15.
I doubt San Diego State has to worry much about punting against und. You guys have never won an FBS game, and this one won't be your first, trust me.

[BadlandsBison]

Colten Heagle being the immortal spawn of a phoenix and Wonder Woman 20 years ago.

KEEAAAAAAAAAW Golden Eagle cannot parish

[BlueBisonRock]

KEEAAAAAAAAAW Golden Eagle cannot parish

And I thought he was a Wisconsin product, not Louisana.

[Herd80]

And I thought he was a Wisconsin product, not Louisana.

I see what you did there

[bisonmike2]

Touch backs are now out to the 25 because of a new rule change, right? I say the no punting after the 50 makes a ton of sense.

[Civil06]

Touch backs are now out to the 25 because of a new rule change, right? I say the no punting after the 50 makes a ton of sense.

IIRC, it's still the 20 for punting, but the 25 for kickoffs to encourage touchbacks.