By the numbers...

[BisonNeil]

The jawing is picking up as we get closer to the game. Most on this board know I like numbers, so let's review some that have been posted elsewhere so we are all on the same page. For the record, any actual averages displayed by me have been rounded off to their highest whole number.

National FCS Defense Rankings (based on official NCAA FCS rankings)

Scoring D: NDSU #1 (13 pts/gm); SHSU #2 (15 pts/gm)
TO Margin: NDSU #5; SHSU #2
Rush D: NDSU #19 (120 yds/gm); SHSU #1 (70 yds/gm)
Pass D: Neither team in the top 50
Pass INTs: NDSU #6 (t); SHSU #1 (t)
Sacks: NDSU #19; SHSU NR
Total D: NDSU #24; SHSU #4

National FCS Offense Rankings

Scoring O: NDSU #24 (32 pts/gm); SHSU #1 (39 pts/gm)
Rush O: NDSU #35 (177 yds/gm); SHSU #4 (267 yds/gm)
Passing O: Neither team in top 50
Sacks Allowed: NDSU #25 (19); SHSU #5 (5 allowed)
Total O: NDSU NR; SHSU #21

Based on these season long statistical rankings for offense and defense it is clear that SHSU is the far superior team. I guess if I was the HC of SHSU and knowing I had such clear superiority in scoring offense and in my defense, I would likely also send my team home for 9 days of rest over the holidays.

Some BVers have claimed that the lofty statistical rankings of SHSU are due to a soft conference schedule. That is very likely. Sagarin ranks the MVFC #2 among FCS and the SFC #6. The RPI, using the Rasch statistical method, ranks the MVFC #12 among ALL DI conferences and the SFC #18. In non-conference games, not including the playoffs, the eight teams in the SFC were 16-16 and the nine teams in the MVFC were 15-12. Obviously, NDSU played a far more difficult schedule which likely provided SHSU an advantage in accumulating a lofty national statistical ranking for its O and D.

But, as Craig Haley of SportsNetwork pointed out, there are statistics within the statistics to be mined, something my stats instructor called "hidden statistics". Let's take a closer look, concentrating on what each team has done in the playoffs, taking a "what have you done for me lately" approach.

As Haley pointed out, NDSUs defense is performing much better in the playoffs against tougher competition. Before the playoffs both teams were basically giving up 14 pts/gm. In the playoffs, NDSU is only giving up 7 pts/gm and SHSU is giving up 23 pts/gm, or 9 higher than their regular season average. But, I think it is worse than that. While SHSU collectively held their playoff opponents to -36 pts below their scoring average, NDSUs D held their playoff opponents to a collective -68 pts below their scoring average. I think this is a huge advantage for the Bison. The Bison D is playing very, very well.

On offense, SHSU has an advantage since in the playoffs they are scoring only a -1 pt below their season average while NDSU is scoring -4 pts below their season average. When examining the playoff opponents defensive scoring versus how NDSU and SHSU did against these teams the advantage again goes to SHSU. The Bearkats have scored 46 pts over the average scoring defense of each team they played while the Bison only scored 22 pts over their opponents average scoring defense. Clearly, the SHSU offense is hitting on all cylinders leading into this championship game.

This is a classic matchup of a prolific offense in SHSU and a suffocating defense in NDSU. The key to the game may be in the differentials. SHSU is averaging 38 pts/gm in the playoffs while NDSU is only giving up 13, a differential of 25 pts. NDSU is averaging 28 pts/gm in the playoffs while SHSU is giving up 23 pts/gm, a differential of only 5 pts. To me those differentials mean the probability is much higher of NDSU putting up points against SHSU than the converse. I'm old school, defenses win national championships and NDSU has the superior defense.

The non-tangibles are also significant and should not be ignored. Among those, SHSU basically has a home field advantage. For the Bison, the non-tangibles that factor in are the simple fact that they kept sharp and focused with non-pad workouts before Christmas before eating mama's cooking and, after watching each in three playoff games, I think it is obvious the Bison are a far better conditioned team.

Bottom line, I am not worried about this game, which of course, worries me :)

[CAS4127]

Good post, Neil. Those numbers coincide with what is likely most of our gut feelings.

One question, where did you get the 13 here;


The key to the game may be in the differentials. SHSU is averaging 38 pts/gm in the playoffs while NDSU is only giving up 13, a differential of 25 pts.

[heffray]

I think it's very interesting to see how much higher the regular season rankings are for SHSU than the Bison, and then it completely drops off in the playoffs and the Bison are dominant on D. I also think that we don't see much of what our offense can really do, especially passing, because we get into a position where we can just run over them and milk a lead. I agree with your last statement, not so much that I'm worried as much as I just know we are up against a really good team and both have a good chance to win. I think, as it usually does, it will come down to turnovers. I think the Bison have the edge there, but do you happen to have any numbers, regular season v playoffs...?

[BisonNeil]

Good post, Neil. Those numbers coincide with what is likely most of our gut feelings.

One question, where did you get the 13 here;

The Bison are giving up 13.2 pts per game after 14 games, I rounded off to the nearest whole number. Their average was like 13.8 before the playoffs, so that is why I used 14 pts when saying that NDSU and SHSU were basically identical after the regular season. Confusing, I know, sorry.

[CAS4127]

The Bison are giving up 13.2 pts per game after 14 games, I rounded off to the nearest whole number. Their average was like 13.8 before the playoffs, so that is why I used 14 pts when saying that NDSU and SHSU were basically identical after the regular season. Confusing, I know, sorry.

I got confused because of the bolded language:


SHSU is averaging 38 pts/gm in the playoffs while NDSU is only giving up 13, a differential of 25 pts


If we took PO numbers, the differential would be more-->NO??!

Not that it really matters I guess.

Otherwise, speaking of numbers, NDSU coaches/players have been breaking down SHSU film (no sh*t, right?!) and are finding that SHSU runs a multitude of different defensive sets and that predicting down and distance tendancies if proving difficult. Proper pre-snap reads by Brock will be critical, and look for long counts that allow him to get the proper read. Hopefully this doesn't result in false starts or delay-of-game penalties.

[BisonNeil]

[QUOTE=heffray;584430]I think it's very interesting to see how much higher the regular season rankings are for SHSU than the Bison, and then it completely drops off in the playoffs and the Bison are dominant on D. I also think that we don't see much of what our offense can really do, especially passing, because we get into a position where we can just run over them and milk a lead. I agree with your last statement, not so much that I'm worried as much as I just know we are up against a really good team and both have a good chance to win. I think, as it usually does, it will come down to turnovers. I think the Bison have the edge there, but do you happen to have any numbers, regular season v playoffs...?[QUOTE]

There's a good question.

Sam over their 14 games have recovered 18 fumbles and intercepted opponents 22 times, for a total of forcing 40 TO, a lot. They have lost only 6 fumbles and only thrown 6 INTs. Their NET TO margin is 28, that is why they are #2. In contrast, NDSU has recovered 10 fumbles and gotten 19 interceptions for a total of 29 TOs, but have lost 8 fumbles and thrown 3 picks, for a +18 TO margin.

In the playoffs, Sam has forced three fumbles and three interceptions for a total of 6 TOs while throwing 2 INTs for a net TO margin of +4. NDSU has forced three fumbles and gotten 4 INTs for a total of 7 TOs but have lost 2 fumbles and thrown one INT, for a TO margin of +4.

So, TO margin in the playoffs has been a net wash, no edge for the Bison, but an edge for Sam in season total TO forced.

[heffray]

[QUOTE=heffray;584430]I think it's very interesting to see how much higher the regular season rankings are for SHSU than the Bison, and then it completely drops off in the playoffs and the Bison are dominant on D. I also think that we don't see much of what our offense can really do, especially passing, because we get into a position where we can just run over them and milk a lead. I agree with your last statement, not so much that I'm worried as much as I just know we are up against a really good team and both have a good chance to win. I think, as it usually does, it will come down to turnovers. I think the Bison have the edge there, but do you happen to have any numbers, regular season v playoffs...?[QUOTE]

There's a good question.

Sam over their 14 games have recovered 18 fumbles and intercepted opponents 22 times, for a total of forcing 40 TO, a lot. They have lost only 6 fumbles and only thrown 6 INTs. Their NET TO margin is 28, that is why they are #2. In contrast, NDSU has recovered 10 fumbles and gotten 19 interceptions for a total of 29 TOs, but have lost 8 fumbles and thrown 3 picks, for a +18 TO margin.

In the playoffs, Sam has forced three fumbles and three interceptions for a total of 6 TOs while throwing 2 INTs for a net TO margin of +4. NDSU has forced three fumbles and gotten 4 INTs for a total of 7 TOs but have lost 2 fumbles and thrown one INT, for a TO margin of +4.

So, TO margin in the playoffs has been a net wash, no edge for the Bison, but an edge for Sam in season total TO forced.

Wow. I REALLY had a misconception about our TO ratio, I thought we would be pretty untouchable. Taking the "cush" Southland Conference into account, is there away to take those Sagarin rankings based on conference to even out the category rankings? Maybe I'm getting a little bit into the weeds on that one.

On paper it looks like Sam has an edge, even with their cushy regular season numbers, but I watched almost ALL of the SHSU v Montana game, and I have to say that Sam Houston looked pretty average in the second half. Bison have looked pretty elite all 4 quarters of all three games. I don't know what to think here anymore. Throw some more moral building numbers at me...

[BISONBRI53]

[QUOTE=BisonNeil;584484][QUOTE=heffray;584430]I think it's very interesting to see how much higher the regular season rankings are for SHSU than the Bison, and then it completely drops off in the playoffs and the Bison are dominant on D. I also think that we don't see much of what our offense can really do, especially passing, because we get into a position where we can just run over them and milk a lead. I agree with your last statement, not so much that I'm worried as much as I just know we are up against a really good team and both have a good chance to win. I think, as it usually does, it will come down to turnovers. I think the Bison have the edge there, but do you happen to have any numbers, regular season v playoffs...?

Wow. I REALLY had a misconception about our TO ratio, I thought we would be pretty untouchable. Taking the "cush" Southland Conference into account, is there away to take those Sagarin rankings based on conference to even out the category rankings? Maybe I'm getting a little bit into the weeds on that one.

On paper it looks like Sam has an edge, even with their cushy regular season numbers, but I watched almost ALL of the SHSU v Montana game, and I have to say that Sam Houston looked pretty average in the second half. Bison have looked pretty elite all 4 quarters of all three games. I don't know what to think here anymore. Throw some more moral building numbers at me...

This has to be somewhat related to the competition does it not? I only saw the one game against Mont. and I was not impressed with their D. I know this has all been said but at the end of the day they all looked slow and beat down.

[CaBisonFan]

We have snuffed out the offensive strength of each playoff team. Clearly, great coaching enters in here...& some amazing efforts on the field.

I offer two very big differentials...Colton Heagle & Marcus Williams. There is no answer for these two.

Outstanding work BisonNeil !!

[BisonNeil]

This has to be somewhat related to the competition does it not? I only saw the one game against Mont. and I was not impressed with their D. I know this has all been said but at the end of the day they all looked slow and beat down.

I think one of the keys for the Bison to win is withstanding the first quarter onslaught. SHSU starts fast, really fast. Their defense is very aggressive, at least in the Montana State and Montana game, frequently attacking the LOS with 6-7 players. They either get TOs, as in the MSU game, or they quickly turn the ball over on downs and get the ball back for their offense. Their offense has a lot of speed and it took a quarter and a half for both teams to adjust their pursuit angles.

Both MT schools were overwhelmed in the first quarter and never fully recovered. If the Bison can be within 7 pts after the first stanza, we win, because I do not believe they are as well conditioned as the Bison.

[semobison]

Thanks Neil, some interesting stuff! The thing that worries me (I worry about every opponent) is their run defense! Stoney Brook averaged 267 YPG on the ground and SHSU held them to 150 and 4.4 ypc! Montana state averaged 212 ypg and only got 77 yards at 2.3 ypc! Montana fared a little better, they came in averaging 210 YPG and ran for 102 and 3.3 ypc! It seems to me their run D is for real! I think play action early could be big for us! We may need to throw to set up the run game which we have done successfully at times this season! I may be wrong but I believe we have run the ball more succesfully in the 2nd half of games this year! Hopefully we have a nice balance offensively.

[BisonNeil]

Thanks Neil, some interesting stuff! The thing that worries me (I worry about every opponent) is their run defense! Stoney Brook averaged 267 YPG on the ground and SHSU held them to 150 and 4.4 ypc! Montana state averaged 212 ypg and only got 77 yards at 2.3 ypc! Montana fared a little better, they came in averaging 210 YPG and ran for 102 and 3.3 ypc! It seems to me their run D is for real! I think play action early could be big for us! We may need to throw to set up the run game which we have done successfully at times this season! I may be wrong but I believe we have run the ball more succesfully in the 2nd half of games this year! Hopefully we have a nice balance offensively.

Your comment on the run defense of SHSU is a very good one. I looked at that earlier and did not post it but in the playoffs the Bison have held their opponents to something like 328 total rush yards below their average, but SHSU has held their opponents to like 368 yds less than those teams averaged during the regular season. So, you are right, their rush D is for real. But, but, all of those teams tried to go off tackle early. I think that is a mistake with their team speed. I think we have to go right at them, between the tackles, have some play action and quick opening passes to make their D stay at home and think. I want the SHSU D thinking.

[CAS4127]

Don't disagree with anything in this thread. What I will say, and peeps can do the math, is that all NDSU championship teams have shut down the preferred offensisive scheme of their opponents. Seems simple, but, if we see that happening early, that is a tell of how the game will turn out.

[BisonNeil]

You're right CAS. In the five championships won in a tournament format, the Bison have given up a total of 67 pts, a 13.4 average. In the two losses they gave up 60 pts. As I said at the beginning, defense wins championships, and NDSUs is playing good ball right now. I hope it keeps up for one more game.

[tjbison]

I think one of the keys for the Bison to win is withstanding the first quarter onslaught. SHSU starts fast, really fast. Their defense is very aggressive, at least in the Montana State and Montana game, frequently attacking the LOS with 6-7 players. They either get TOs, as in the MSU game, or they quickly turn the ball over on downs and get the ball back for their offense. Their offense has a lot of speed and it took a quarter and a half for both teams to adjust their pursuit angles.

Both MT schools were overwhelmed in the first quarter and never fully recovered. If the Bison can be within 7 pts after the first stanza, we win, because I do not believe they are as well conditioned as the Bison.

IMO, this is exactly what needs to happen, we have physically and mentally beat down everyteam we played exept our mid season debacle with YSU. Look at MN they were sucking air in the 4th qtr, GSU was just mentally confused and JMU was shot. It shows how hard our guys work to stay in that condition and with SHSU taking a week off and our boys in the gym, I think we take over in the third and bring Number 9 overall and Number 1 in DI!!

[BisonNeil]

A pretty good analysis of the championship game on the SportsNetwork. If you aren't interested in reading it, they pick SHSU to win 27-21.

http://64.246.64.33/merge/tsnform.aspx?c=sportsnetwork&page=cfoot2/news/news.aspx?id=4460222

[OtterTailLakeBison]

Good thread - Also just announced the Sam Houston State O-Coordinator and O-Line coach will be going to New Mexico next year. Coach Willie Fritz remarked "Bob and Derek did an excellent job for us," Fritz said. "We wish them well in their new jobs at New Mexico. We're happy that things are working out to where they're going to be able to finish the season with us."

http://www.gobearkats.com/ViewArticle.dbml?ATCLID=205353689&DB_OEM_ID=19900

Hopefully that last line translates to some tension or discontinuity that existed within their coaching staff during the holiday season.

[Mr. Burgundy]

I LOVE that they have a portion of their staff that is leaving to join Davie in New Mexico. Keep in mind we are a month away from Signing Day. I guarantee you that they have a portion of their brain on their next job, recruiting, how they are moving their families, what school their kids will go to.....just life. It happens. That is why some schools don't want their leaving coaches to stay on for the bowl game. It will be interesting. Could you imagine if Hazelton was already named the coach of a different school? He would have had to interviewed, talked it over in detail with mentors/family....it just takes away from what our current coaches are living on. Advantage.....Bison.

[X-Factor]

Your comment on the run defense of SHSU is a very good one. I looked at that earlier and did not post it but in the playoffs the Bison have held their opponents to something like 328 total rush yards below their average, but SHSU has held their opponents to like 368 yds less than those teams averaged during the regular season. So, you are right, their rush D is for real. But, but, all of those teams tried to go off tackle early. I think that is a mistake with their team speed. I think we have to go right at them, between the tackles, have some play action and quick opening passes to make their D stay at home and think. I want the SHSU D thinking.

If that is the case Austin Richard must find a way to be our MVP.

[IzzyFlexion]

Somewhat unrelated, somewhat related. Either way it is impressive and noteworthy to point out the following.
In NDSU's 21 losses since the 2006 season, (6 years) the average margin of loss is 6.95 points. This is a remarkable stat that certainly has to be at or near the best number in this statistical category at any level of college football. And, as Bison fans know, 3 of these losses were against FBS opponents. (and no NAIA opponents!! :biggrin:)

My point?......Even if the Herd finds themselves in an early hole, I believe that Bohl and company will find a way to stay in it.