Bison Playoff Chances Go Up In the Bye Week Big Time

[bisonatrix]

I dont think NDSU could have asked for any better when it comes to the rest of the league/FCS for their playoff chances.

SDSU loses and is basically done for playoff contention with five losses. Same for Ill State & Youngstown.

Plus, outside the MVC, Montana lost and is now at 3 losses, and Montana State was losing late.

Looks like UNI will be the auto, and my guess is Western (barring another loss) would be first up for the second bid. That said, their margin for error is tight.

Things are setting up nicely for NDSU. If they win out (still a big if granted), their probably in at 8-3.

[HerdBot]

I dont think NDSU could have asked for any better when it comes to the rest of the league/FCS for their playoff chances.

SDSU loses and is basically done for playoff contention with five losses. Same for Ill State & Youngstown.

Plus, outside the MVC, Montana lost and is now at 3 losses, and Montana State was losing late.

Looks like UNI will be the auto, and my guess is Western (barring another loss) would be first up for the second bid. That said, their margin for error is tight.

Things are setting up nicely for NDSU. If they win out (still a big if granted), their probably in at 8-3.

With zero help we would have been in at 8-3. With some more help we have an outside but unlikely chance at 7-4. SIU is our only concern right now.

[DjKyRo]

At this juncture I'm picking WIU for the autobid. They play UNI in the last conf. game of the season and they've absolutely steamrolled some people. Those two are the best lock for the playoffs now, but if the Bison go 8-3 I like them as MVFC Playoff Team #3.

[HandoEX]

I am fine with UNI winning. It would have been HUGE if WIU lost.

That said, we won't need any help as we WILL win out to go 8-3!!!!!!!!!!!

[bisonatrix]

With zero help we would have been in at 8-3. With some more help we have an outside but unlikely chance at 7-4. SIU is our only concern right now.

Not so sure about that. We'd have been tough to ignore, but the MVC maybe a 2 bid league at this point, and if its between us and Western, WIU has the head-to-head.....

[NDSUstudent]

If we go 8-3 we are in. Simple as that, UNI and WIU have to play each other in what could be a loser out game if we are 8-3.

[NWNDBison]

^^^^^This!^^^^^

I can't see how the MVFC is gonna get a third team in. Ain't gonna happen. We have to find a way to be #2.

[DjKyRo]

Not so sure about that. We'd have been tough to ignore, but the MVC maybe a 2 bid league at this point, and if its between us and Western, WIU has the head-to-head.....

I don't think the MVFC is a two-bid league this year. We aren't competing against WIU (necessarily), we're competing against the other teams from weaker conferences for one of those at-large spots. Not many of those have wins over an FBS team and ranked non-conference team.

[Tatanka]

^^^^^This!^^^^^

I can't see how the MVFC is gonna get a third team in. Ain't gonna happen. We have to find a way to be #2.

Actually, we have to find a way to not be #2, in a manner of speaking.

[BlueBisonRock]

Actually, we have to find a way to not be #2, in a manner of speaking.

That is a bit more philosophy than I really needed today...

[bisonatrix]

If anything chances are now starting to go up that 4 loss team could get in. Now a 4 loss MVC team? That's another story.

[Bisonwinagn]

Not so sure about that. We'd have been tough to ignore, but the MVC maybe a 2 bid league at this point, and if its between us and Western, WIU has the head-to-head.....

The number of teams making the playoff's from the MVC is completely irrelavant. We need to look at all teams across the country and are competing against the bubble teams from the best conferences such as the CAA, Big Sky, MVFC, and Southern. Almost all at large teams will come from these conferences. If we go 8-3 we will be in and may get a bye in the first round as a top 12 team. At 7-4 we are almost certainly out as there will be a bunch of 7-4 teams competing for one or two spots.

[bisonatrix]

The number of teams making the playoff's from the MVC is completely irrelavant. We need to look at all teams across the country and are competing against the bubble teams from the best conferences such as the CAA, Big Sky, MVFC, and Southern. Almost all at large teams will come from these conferences. If we go 8-3 we will be in and may get a bye in the first round as a top 12 team. At 7-4 we are almost certainly out as there will be a bunch of 7-4 teams competing for one or two spots.

Doubt we'd get a bye. its encouraging that the Big Sky is having a bad week. Montana losing puts them in a precarious spot, and if NAU loses their done. Weber STate still has an outside shot, but the BSC might have gone from a 4 to 3 bid league today. Whether that other bid will go to the CAA or MVC will depend obviously.

And of course, its all a moot point if this team cant win 3 straight. That's something they haven't done since the Walker years, and frankly, even though these three teams now are they'll be playing are out of the hunt, I'm still not that confident. But at the very least things are setting up nicely.

[aces1180]

Doubt we'd get a bye. its encouraging that the Big Sky is having a bad week. Montana losing puts them in a precarious spot, and if NAU loses their done. Weber STate still has an outside shot, but the BSC might have gone from a 4 to 3 bid league today. Whether that other bid will go to the CAA or MVC will depend obviously.

And of course, its all a moot point if this team cant win 3 straight. That's something they haven't done since the Walker years, and frankly, even though these three teams now are they'll be playing are out of the hunt, I'm still not that confident. But at the very least things are setting up nicely.

It would actually be four straight if we run the table...I agree that it's still an uphill battle.

[X-Factor]

I am fine with UNI winning. It would have been HUGE if WIU lost.

That said, we won't need any help as we WILL win out to go 8-3!!!!!!!!!!!

Actually, I believe it would be MUCH better if WIU won out and their victory last night helps us tremendously.

Here is the logic.

UNI would be hard pressed to get an at-large with 4 losses, expecially behind NDSU if NDSU wins out at 8-3 with a Bix XII win.
IF WIU beats UNI and wins out from here, they win the autobid and make UNI possibly sit at home. Otherwise we are looking at NDSU being the #3 valley team.

[#1BISONFAN ASHLEY]

When we win out, we should have Western Illinois lose to SIU next week and then have WIU beat UNI the last week. Then we could get the #2 MVFC playoff team!

[#1BISONFAN ASHLEY]

Now how many teams are still in the hunt for these 20 playoff spots?????? 40?

[SDBisonbacker]

For the Bison to be in for sure they need to win out no question. However if they do lose one game i still think there is a chance if W.Ill loses its last two confrence games they would be tied with the Bison for 2nd in the MVFC and I thik hitting a losing stride would put them on the bubble even though they beat the Bison. I am still under the belief that UNI, W. Ill and the Bison all make it in.

[bisonatrix]

8 wins is kinda the magic number in an 11 game schedule. Whoever gets to 8, regardless of how they get there, probably gets into the playoffs.

If you're at 7-4, the key being the 4 losses, then it gets dicey and is based on who you played a bit more.

Easiest scenario-NDSU wins out, their in.

Toughest Scenario-NDSU goes 2-1 and sees a bunch of other teams also finish 7-4 and hope the committee takes into account the Bison's strength of schedule over those schools (EG if Montana or MSU finished 7-4 but had a D2 win on their resume).