#6 on Sagarin NCAA football ratings

[yellowstreak]

not the most accurate rating, but one of the fastest to publish

FCS---FBS/FCS---School
1-----36--------James Madison
2-----66--------Delaware
3-----72--------Villanova
4-----84--------Massachusetts
5-----88--------Appalachian State
6-----90--------North Dakota State
7-----92--------William & Mary
8-----93--------Furman
9-----99--------Jacksonville State
10----103-------Georgia Southern
11----105-------Richmond
12----108-------Stephen F. Austin
13----111-------Montana State
14----112-------Cal Poly-SLO
15----115-------New Hampshire
16----117-------Montana
17----119-------Youngstown State
18----121-------Northern Arizona
19----124-------Eastern Washington
20----126-------Northern Iowa
21----127-------Illinois State
22----128-------Brown
23----130-------Texas State
24----134-------Sacramento State
25----135-------Pennsylvania

[No_Skill]

I don't know, I've always kind of liked the Sagarin Rankings.

Here are some others of note:

77 Kansas
102 Minnesota
119 Youngstown State
126 Northern Iowa
142 Western Illinois
150 South Dakota
154 South Dakota State
165 North Dakota
168 Southern Illinois :eek:

[bisoneer]

I like this poll...

[Hammersmith]

We're just about at the point that Sagarin has enough data to work with.

[DjKyRo]

I'm down with any poll that puts us ahead of UND....which is currently all of them. :)

[CaBisonFan]

Interesting...and good to see. We're back in the FCS hunt. Let's stay there.

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

We're just about at the point that Sagarin has enough data to work with.

Whenever Sagarin says the poll is "unbiased" it will be spot on. It always is.

[Answer Guy]

http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthread.php?t=17616&page=2


Computers don't know sh** about football.


sagarin is a joke.



I'm glad they got that credibility problem fixed from last year :)

[OrygunBison]

We're just about at the point that Sagarin has enough data to work with.

Give it a couple more weeks and it'll be much better data.

[Bisonguy]

I like this poll...

It's not a poll, it's a ranking. Polls have numerous voters, this is basically a big mathematical ranking.


We're just about at the point that Sagarin has enough data to work with.

Yeah, after 6 weeks is decent, 8 weeks is pretty good IMO.

[Tatanka]

http://www.bisonville.com/forum/showthread.php?t=17616&page=2







I'm glad they got that credibility problem fixed from last year :)

Dude has a point.

[bisonaudit]

1) Agree, not enought data yet.

2) Don't use the order they're published in, it's a meaningless combination of the real Sagarin ranking and the meaningless BCS ranking he produces to appease the overlords at USAToday and the NCAA. Use the Predictor column.

We're actually ahead of App St and behind Furman and William and Mary.

[THE HERD]

Once you get to mid season or later Sagarin is probably the best and most accurate poll out there, because by then they have enough data from that year. Early season Sagarin does not mean much.

[#1BISONFAN ASHLEY]

I love this poll!

[onbison09]

I love this poll!

It was from September. I thought the same thing :D

[HerdBot]

not the most accurate rating, but one of the fastest to publish

FCS---FBS/FCS---School
1-----36--------James Madison
2-----66--------Delaware
3-----72--------Villanova
4-----84--------Massachusetts
5-----88--------Appalachian State
6-----90--------North Dakota State
7-----92--------William & Mary
8-----93--------Furman
9-----99--------Jacksonville State
10----103-------Georgia Southern
11----105-------Richmond
12----108-------Stephen F. Austin
13----111-------Montana State
14----112-------Cal Poly-SLO
15----115-------New Hampshire
16----117-------Montana
17----119-------Youngstown State
18----121-------Northern Arizona
19----124-------Eastern Washington
20----126-------Northern Iowa
21----127-------Illinois State
22----128-------Brown
23----130-------Texas State
24----134-------Sacramento State
25----135-------Pennsylvania

Wow! We got to get this out there in the eyes of the people who choose at large bids

[tony]

I've always thought Sagarin was garbage. The way the system is set up is such that we'd see some D2-D3 in the top 40 overall.

That said, it's a loss less crappy at this time of the year than it is in mid-September.

For FCS, the GPI is much more in touch with reality:

https://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=0At2w-dbZUZ2gdDduYXR1dEdWVHRLSTc0Qmx4U0lTM2c&hl=en&output=html



Rank Team
1. Appalachian State (1.50)
2. Villanova (2.50)
3. Delaware (3.375)
4. Jacksonville State (4.00)
5. William & Mary (4.125)
6. Eastern Washington (5.875)
7. New Hampshire (7.50)
8. Wofford (7.625)
9. Stephen F. Austin (9.875)
10. Montana State (12.00)
11. Northern Iowa (13.75)
12. Massachusetts (14.00)
13. Western Illinois (14.375)
14. Montana (16.625)
15. Southeast Missouri State (17.125)
16. Sacramento State (17.50)
17. James Madison (19.375)
18. Chattanooga (20.75)
19. Northern Arizona (21.25)
20. North Dakota State (21.50)
21. Cal Poly SLO (23.75)
22. Richmond (24.125)
23. Southern Utah (24.50)
24. South Dakota State (26.25)
25. Indiana State (26.50)


Even so, I'd kind of like our chances against Northern Arizona. I watched some of their game last week against Sacramento State (they were down 40-0... at home! I think it was NAU's Homecoming too.)

[westnodak93bison]

I'll disagree with Tony. Sagarin is pretty damn good at predicting wins imho.
I followed it last year for the 2nd half and it was amazing how well it shook out with the games I watched. If I were a betting man I'd really pay attention to Sagarin when making my picks.

[tony]

I'll disagree with Tony. Sagarin is pretty damn good at predicting wins imho.
I followed it last year for the 2nd half and it was amazing how well it shook out with the games I watched. If I were a betting man I'd really pay attention to Sagarin when making my picks.

Hey, I hope it's right. It'd be cool if NDSU was really the 6th best team in the FCS right now because this Bison team still has a lot of room for improvement.

Not sure where my anti-Sagarin bias came from... I thought there were D3 teams cracking the top 100 but didn't see anything but DI teams in his rankings.

[bisonaudit]

1) The whole thing is data driven so early in the season it's garbage because there is no data. If you read the introductory material on the usatoday web page it basically admits this fact.

2) You have to look at the right numbers. The order they're published in is an average of two other numbers. a) ELO_CHESS: the BCS number, not good for predicting or wagering and b) PREDICTOR: this is the one you want to pay attention to.

[tony]

Heh, I totally missed that the Sagarin deal was from early in the season (therefore it makes much more sense.)

Here's what it looks like now ordered by that predictor thingie:



Sagarin, ordered by Predictor, 10/30
55 Villanova (48)
62 Delaware (64)
78 New Hampshire (65)
63 William & Mary (74)
89 Sacramento State (79)
95 Western Illinois (88)
98 Northern Arizona (90)
101 James Madison (92)
80 Eastern Washington (93)
91 Stephen F. Austin (96)
79 Jacksonville State (103)
99 Massachusetts (106)
116 Southern Utah (109)
96 Montana State (113)
141 Liberty (121)
112 Jacksonville (122)
109 Northern Iowa (123)
131 Missouri State (124)
135 Sam Houston State (125)
119 North Dakota State (127)

[SDbison]

Heh, I totally missed that the Sagarin deal was from early in the season (therefore it makes much more sense.)

Here's what it looks like now ordered by that predictor thingie:
Wow, Missouri State is ranked higher than NDSU.......makes for an interesting game at the end of the season.

[bisonaudit]

Wow, Missouri State is ranked higher than NDSU.......makes for an interesting game at the end of the season.

It's on the road so today, Sagarin would make us a 3.38 point underdog.

[Hammersmith]

Hey, I hope it's right. It'd be cool if NDSU was really the 6th best team in the FCS right now because this Bison team still has a lot of room for improvement.

Not sure where my anti-Sagarin bias came from... I thought there were D3 teams cracking the top 100 but didn't see anything but DI teams in his rankings.

Could you be confusing Sagarin with Massey? Massey is that one that UND fans kept using to show how DII was better than FCS. Even though its creator took great pains to point out that his numbers shouldn't be used across divisions, it still left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths(mine at least).

[tony]

Could you be confusing Sagarin with Massey? Massey is that one that UND fans kept using to show how DII was better than FCS. Even though its creator took great pains to point out that his numbers shouldn't be used across divisions, it still left a bad taste in a lot of people's mouths(mine at least).

That certainly could be.

[bisonhp330]

the ratings on this are meaningless- it says they factor in schedule toughness, common opponents, scores, how many hotdogs are sold, the size and shape of the cheerleaders- what jumps us to 6th is they also factor in the average 1st half B.A.C. of the student section. We own that stat.

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin has us 23rd in the FCS and makes us a 3.42 point favorite v. SDSU and a 0.77 point dog @ Missouri St.

Monday, November 8, 2010.